Close
Leave Feedback
Welcome to the new btim.com.auTake a two minute tour to see what we've changed
Hi there! Welcome to the new look Pendal website... Take a two minute tour to see what we’ve changed.
Mainstream Online Web Portal
LoginInvestors can view their accounts online via a secure web portal. After registering, you can access your account balances, periodical statements, tax statements, transaction histories and distribution statements / details.
Advisers will also have access to view their clients’ accounts online via the secure web portal.
The Point
Quick, actionable insights for investors
May 29
The headlines driving Aussie equities | Falling USD should lift EMs | Where to find opportunities in theme-driven markets
Loading posts...
Elise McKay: The headlines driving Aussie equities this week
Quick view
Elise McKay: The headlines driving Aussie equities this week
Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week, according to Aussie equities analyst and portfolio manager ELISE MCKAY and reported by head investment specialist CHRIS ADAMS
Read Pendal’s latest weekly equities overview.
Crispin Murray: Where to find ASX opportunities amid ‘theme-driven’ market noise
Quick view
Crispin Murray: Where to find ASX opportunities amid ‘theme-driven’ market noise
Share prices are increasingly moved by popular themes like AI disruption, trade wars, and tariff fears – without regard to company fundamentals or long-term valuations.
As a result, quality Australian companies with sound outlooks and predictable cash flows are being indiscriminately sold off.
That’s creating opportunities for active fund managers, Pendal’s head of equities Crispin Murray told Morningstar’s 2025 investment conference in Sydney last week.
“We believe this is creating more distortions in the market. It means the amplitude of mispricing is greater, and it lasts longer.”
Global market dislocation means the ASX has a range of industrial companies with predictable cash flows and returns that have been sold down and offer opportunities for investors, he says.
“One example is CSL – one of Australia’s largest, most successful companies. Five years ago it was running high – at an over-40 multiple. It’s now down to about 22 times earnings,” he says.
Fears of the impact of tariffs on CSL are misplaced, assuming the company doesn’t do anything to respond – “and I think that’s where the market’s overreacting,” argues Crispin.
“We think the risk on the tariff front is being overstated, and that’s what’s providing you the opportunity.” Pendal owns CSL.
Read more
‘Emerging markets crisis’? That’s a wildly overstated view, say our experts
Quick view
‘Emerging markets crisis’? That’s a wildly overstated view, say our experts
Some analysts have described a pattern of a weaker dollar and rising bond yields in the US as a ‘classic emerging markets crisis’.
“As veterans of actual emerging crises dating back to 1994, we consider that view to be wildly overstated,” writes Pendal’s EM team in their latest analysis.
In spite of volatility and weakness in core US financial markets, the currencies of almost all emerging markets strengthened against the US dollar in March and April. Meanwhile bond yields fell for the majority of major EMs.
“Emerging markets are driven by two major global drivers: international capital flows and international trade.
“A weaker dollar represents capital flowing out of the US and into the rest of the world – and a weaker dollar has consistently been positive for emerging markets over the past 30 years.
“Although evolving tariff policies threaten a downturn in global trade, the message from financial markets is that investor uncertainty about US economic policies is a clear positive for emerging economies and for investors in emerging markets.”
Read more
Amy Xie Patrick: China, the US, and the value of uncertainty
Quick view
Amy Xie Patrick: China, the US, and the value of uncertainty
This month’s divergence in US and China rates policies wasn’t just a curiosity for money managers, observes Pendal’s head of income strategies, Amy Xie Patrick.
“It’s a study in contrasts, a reflection of deeper structural differences, and a reminder that policy effectiveness doesn’t always come wrapped in transparency or even democracy,” says Amy in her latest markets analysis.
On May 7, the US Fed left rates unchanged despite growing political pressure. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China delivered another dose of stimulus.
“One central bank faced market criticism over its non-committal guidance,” notes Amy. “The other moved swiftly and silently, without needing to justify its decision.
“Perhaps the most contrarian yet valuable takeaway is that less policy guidance may be a good thing.
“By avoiding the hard task of forecasting far into the future, we free ourselves from unhelpful narratives may that turn out to be false.
“By focusing on getting it right rather than always being right, we’re able to preserve the flexibility to change course when the fundamentals change.”
Read Amy’s full article here
Latest updates from our fund managers
Income and Fixed Interest
Tim Hext: Australia to expect state budget downgrades
June 25, 2025
See all
Emerging Markets
Emerging markets: Look past commodity exports to countries with strong domestic demand
July 26, 2023
See allSubscribe to The Point
Get regular insights on investing, market analysis and portfolio management from the experts at Perpetual Group.
Follow
The Point
These podcasts are for general information purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. They have been prepared without taking into account any recipient’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on the information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their or their clients’ individual objectives, financial situation and needs. The information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation.
The information in these podcasts may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information in this presentation is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither Pendal nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any projections contained in these podcasts are predictive and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. Whilst we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections.
Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
For more information, please call Customer Relations on 1300 346 821 8.00am to 6:00pm (Sydney time) or visit our website www.pendalgroup.com
Crispin Murray: What’s driving Aussie equities this week
Confidence in China continues to weaken.
High youth unemployment is deterring consumer spending. Fears about the solvency of private developers are discouraging new home purchases.
Investment trust defaults such as Zhongrong risk triggering redemption requests, leading to a potential liquidity squeeze.
A number of incremental policy initiatives have been unable to reverse deteriorating sentiment.
Despite the bearish portrait, our head of equities Crispin Murray notes that some China-related stocks and ASX sectors have held up – notably the miners.
The bulls are taking the view that things are so bad, they’re good – which increases the chance of a more convincing policy response such as the one we saw in 2015, says Crispin.
“They are drawing a comparison with the period prior to the reversal of the Zero-covid policy, where there were incremental signals before a major policy change,” says Crispin.
If a major policy response doesn’t materialise, Crispin sees some risk around bulk commodity producers at these levels.
Aug 17
The big questions for equities | Two stocks taking off | Why you can look past ESG volatility | How investors are making the world better
Tim Hext: Wage growth remains under control – for now
Quick view
Tim Hext: Wage growth remains under control – for now
Wage growth – a key indicator that the RBA watches when weighing up rates decisions – was surprisingly benign in the June quarter.
The latest Wage Price Index, which measures salary changes across 18 industries, shows overall wages grew by only 0.8% in the period.
That’s three quarters in a row at 0.8%, suggesting an annual run-rate of only 3.2%, points out our head of bond strategies Tim Hext. (The official number is 3.6% due to a 1.1% result in September).
“Wages across the economy are likely to settle on 4% rises for several years yet,” predicts Tim.
That continues to buy time for the RBA – the market expects one more hike towards year-end or early 2024.
The outlook for bond investors?
“Short-end bonds should remain rangebound for now. Longer bonds remain vulnerable to higher long-end rates globally.”
Another Chinese property developer is in trouble. Here’s what it means
Quick view
Another Chinese property developer is in trouble. Here’s what it means
China’s property sector woes continued this week as another big property developer found itself in trouble.
Country Garden – China’s biggest property developer based on last year’s contracted sales – missed US$22.5 million in payments on two bonds.
The company is described as facing “periodic liquidity stress“.
Country Garden will probably find enough money to pay the coupon within the 30-day grace period, says our head of income strategies Amy Xie Patrick.
But it needs another $US2 billion for other payments, plus cash to complete pre-sold projects.
As the confidence crisis in the property sector deepens in China, levered property developers need strong new pre-sales to complete older pre-sales.
But monthly sales are well down on 2021 down and still falling.
“This is what is causing the ‘periodic liquidity stress’ – though I would describe it as existential rather than periodic,” says Amy.
Here Amy explains the detail and what it means for the global outlook
Aug 10
Change on US recession outlook | Watch-out on Asia tech stocks | Green bonds primer
Tim Hext: What to pay attention to in the RBA’s latest monetary policy statement
Quick view
Tim Hext: What to pay attention to in the RBA’s latest monetary policy statement
When the RBA releases its quarterly monetary policy statement, our head of bond strategies Tim Hext first reads through the forecasts and then goes to the boxes.
“Box A” and “Box B” are typically special interest topics, offering an insight into what our central bankers are discussing and investigating internally.
Box B in the latest statement covers insights from the RBA’s business liaison program, including recent chats with 230 Australian businesses and organisations.
“Box B reveals a growing view that businesses are seeing an easing in demand and costs, consistent with an increasingly neutral RBA,” says Tim.
It also shows businesses expect an easing of wage rises in the year ahead – even though the Wage Price Index isn’t forecast to peak until the end of the year.
“This shows the RBA will likely stare down commentators who talk about higher wages meaning further rate hikes,” argues Tim.
Aug 3
What’s next for rates | Questions to ask in earnings season | No stimulus, but there are still China opportunities | How AI could be a victim of its own success
Elise McKay: The questions to ask this ASX earnings season
Quick view
Elise McKay: The questions to ask this ASX earnings season
ASX earnings season kicks off next week. What should Aussie equities investors be looking for?
Much more than revenue and profit margins, says Pendal investment analyst Elise McKay.
The macro-economic environment will play a big part, predicts Elise.
“In the US, even though companies are delivering better earnings, their share prices aren’t going up on the news.
“The recent market outperformance has been driven by the macro environment, not the earnings.”
Elise says investors should be asking: “Have companies maintained the ability to pass through higher prices? What’s happening to wages? Are further cost reduction programs announced?”
Look out also for how companies are managing opportunities and threats related to artificial intelligence, she says.
Loading posts...
Subscribe to The Point
Get regular insights on investing, market analysis and portfolio management from the experts at Perpetual Group.