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The Point
Quick, actionable insights for investors
May 29
The headlines driving Aussie equities | Falling USD should lift EMs | Where to find opportunities in theme-driven markets
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Elise McKay: The headlines driving Aussie equities this week
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Elise McKay: The headlines driving Aussie equities this week
Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week, according to Aussie equities analyst and portfolio manager ELISE MCKAY and reported by head investment specialist CHRIS ADAMS
Read Pendal’s latest weekly equities overview.
Crispin Murray: Where to find ASX opportunities amid ‘theme-driven’ market noise
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Crispin Murray: Where to find ASX opportunities amid ‘theme-driven’ market noise
Share prices are increasingly moved by popular themes like AI disruption, trade wars, and tariff fears – without regard to company fundamentals or long-term valuations.
As a result, quality Australian companies with sound outlooks and predictable cash flows are being indiscriminately sold off.
That’s creating opportunities for active fund managers, Pendal’s head of equities Crispin Murray told Morningstar’s 2025 investment conference in Sydney last week.
“We believe this is creating more distortions in the market. It means the amplitude of mispricing is greater, and it lasts longer.”
Global market dislocation means the ASX has a range of industrial companies with predictable cash flows and returns that have been sold down and offer opportunities for investors, he says.
“One example is CSL – one of Australia’s largest, most successful companies. Five years ago it was running high – at an over-40 multiple. It’s now down to about 22 times earnings,” he says.
Fears of the impact of tariffs on CSL are misplaced, assuming the company doesn’t do anything to respond – “and I think that’s where the market’s overreacting,” argues Crispin.
“We think the risk on the tariff front is being overstated, and that’s what’s providing you the opportunity.” Pendal owns CSL.
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‘Emerging markets crisis’? That’s a wildly overstated view, say our experts
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‘Emerging markets crisis’? That’s a wildly overstated view, say our experts
Some analysts have described a pattern of a weaker dollar and rising bond yields in the US as a ‘classic emerging markets crisis’.
“As veterans of actual emerging crises dating back to 1994, we consider that view to be wildly overstated,” writes Pendal’s EM team in their latest analysis.
In spite of volatility and weakness in core US financial markets, the currencies of almost all emerging markets strengthened against the US dollar in March and April. Meanwhile bond yields fell for the majority of major EMs.
“Emerging markets are driven by two major global drivers: international capital flows and international trade.
“A weaker dollar represents capital flowing out of the US and into the rest of the world – and a weaker dollar has consistently been positive for emerging markets over the past 30 years.
“Although evolving tariff policies threaten a downturn in global trade, the message from financial markets is that investor uncertainty about US economic policies is a clear positive for emerging economies and for investors in emerging markets.”
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Amy Xie Patrick: China, the US, and the value of uncertainty
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Amy Xie Patrick: China, the US, and the value of uncertainty
This month’s divergence in US and China rates policies wasn’t just a curiosity for money managers, observes Pendal’s head of income strategies, Amy Xie Patrick.
“It’s a study in contrasts, a reflection of deeper structural differences, and a reminder that policy effectiveness doesn’t always come wrapped in transparency or even democracy,” says Amy in her latest markets analysis.
On May 7, the US Fed left rates unchanged despite growing political pressure. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China delivered another dose of stimulus.
“One central bank faced market criticism over its non-committal guidance,” notes Amy. “The other moved swiftly and silently, without needing to justify its decision.
“Perhaps the most contrarian yet valuable takeaway is that less policy guidance may be a good thing.
“By avoiding the hard task of forecasting far into the future, we free ourselves from unhelpful narratives may that turn out to be false.
“By focusing on getting it right rather than always being right, we’re able to preserve the flexibility to change course when the fundamentals change.”
Read Amy’s full article here
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Jul 27
How to invest in Hollywood | China’s latest signal explained | Why it’s worth digging into infrastructure | Domestic demand drives emerging markets
Emerging markets: Look past commodity exports to countries with strong domestic demand
Emerging markets investors often focus on commodity-intensive countries – many of which rely on China as one of the world’s top importers.
That may not be an attractive angle right now due to China’s weaker economy.
But it doesn’t mean there isn’t opportunity in the EM space, says Pendal PM James Syme.
Look past commodity export data to identify strong domestic demand stories, says James.
He points to Latin America, where GDP growth and equity market returns are traditionally correlated with commodity prices – especially metals.
“We’re very positive on the outlook for the domestic economies of Brazil and Mexico,” says James. “But not because we’ve got a particularly positive view on metals.”
Both countries should see significant interest rate cuts this year and next, further stimulating what is already quite robust domestic demand.
Amy Xie Patrick: The market’s getting excited about China again, but it may be premature
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Amy Xie Patrick: The market’s getting excited about China again, but it may be premature
THE latest message from China’s top decision-making body caused a stir this week when investors noted softer language on property.
For the first time since 2016, President Xi Jinping’s signature slogan that “houses are for living, not for speculation” was missing from a note that followed a Politburo meeting.
That got the market excited about the potential for a meaningful China stimulus push via the property sector.
But the market is getting ahead of itself, says Pendal’s head of income strategies Amy Xi Patrick.
“The line has likely been dropped because it’s simply no longer needed. Buyers are no longer speculating. They are actively selling in an attempt to exit the property game altogether.”
Amy believes there is no silver bullet for the Chinese economy.
Jul 20
Asset allocation in uncertain times | What’s blunting monetary policy | Why services are weakening | Defining a true social bond
Jun 22
Diversified approach to ESG | A watch-out on AI stocks | Why our EM PMs like Brazil | Assessing WA’s green bond
Capital inflows and caipirinhas: Brazil’s sunny outlook
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Capital inflows and caipirinhas: Brazil’s sunny outlook
Brazil’s central bank, Banco Central do Brasil, was one of the first global monetary authorities to start lifting interest rates.
It was tough medicine but now the top-ten economy is reaping rewards earlier than its peers, says James Syme, who co-manages Pendal Global Emerging Markets Opportunities fund.
“In emerging markets, typically everything goes wrong, or everything goes right.
“If things go right, you typically get capital inflows, a stronger currency, a better inflation outlook, the prospect for yields to fall, equities going up along with economic growth – and an easing of any political stresses.
“We think that’s where Brazil is now.
“We are also seeing broadly similar patterns in India, Indonesia and Mexico.
“Long, deep down-swings tend to be followed by long upswings – and that’s broadly what we expect will happen with these economies.”
Crispin Murray: What’s driving Aussie equities this week
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Crispin Murray: What’s driving Aussie equities this week
EQUITIES continue to rally even as bond yields rise on the back of the Fed’s “hawkish pause” which held rates steady but added in a second rate rise by the year’s end to the “dot plot”.
The market is not convinced of the need for that hike, with CPI data indicating inflation is coming down.
There has been some good news recently.
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