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Global equities: Look to exporters in UK, Europe and Japan for opportunities

It’s back to the future for investors with 2023 looking like a “normal financial crisis”, says Chris Lees, co-manager of Pendal Global Select Fund

  • Opportunities in technology and consumer staples
  • Exporters in UK, Europe and Japan are favoured
  • Find out about Pendal Global Select Fund.

IT’S back to the future for investors with 2023 looking like a “normal financial crisis”, says Chris Lees, co-manager of Pendal’s Global Select Fund.

“The classic 60/40 asset allocation model is working again,” says Lees in a recent quarterly webinar.

Scroll down to watch the full presentation.

Inflation remains the big unknown — specifically whether we’re facing a 1970s-style scenario when rates rose and then were cut too early, triggering a second round of price rises.

Or a 1980s-type scenario where rates stayed higher for longer and inflation was killed off.

Or should investors expect an injection of liquidity – the so-called ‘Greenspan put’ – if markets fall sharply?

This is a Q1 2023 webinar recorded in April by Chris Lees, co-manager of Pendal Global Select Fund. Here Chris is addressing investors in overseas versions of this fund, which are distributed through our J O Hambro asset manager affiliates.

Lees and fellow co-manager Nudgem Richyal have not bought any western banks for the fund in about 15 years. “The banks are not as cheap, and not as safe, as many investors and depositors think.”

“We don’t find them particularly attractive at 0.5 to 1.5 times book [value],” Lees said.

“We do however own as couple of emerging market banks which are very profitable, with 300-to-500 basis points of net interest margin spreads. They are growth stocks in emerging markets.”

“We still think the short-term risk to interest rates is still probably on the upside, and the short-term risk to earnings is probably on the downside,” Lees says.

“The investment environment is clearly changing from last year’s inflation and interest rate shock to this year’s banking shock,” he says.

This means sectors such as financials and energy have deteriorated, from an investor’s viewpoint. Technology and consumer staples have improved, he says

“At the regional level, we’ve seen the UK, Europe and Japan improve at the margin, and specifically the exporters in those markets,” Lees says.

“And that’s the type of stock that we’ll be looking to add to the portfolio next – some world class champions in the UK, Europe and Japanese technology or consumer staples sectors.”


About Chris Lees and Nudgem Richyal

Chris Lees co-manages Pendal Global Select Fund with Nudgem Richyal. The pair have been working together in global equities investing for more than 20 years.

Chris has more than 32 years of investment industry experience. He joined Pendal Group’s UK-based asset manager J O Hambro Capital Management (JOHCM) in 2008 after spending 19 years at Baring Asset Management, ultimately as head of its global sector team.


About Pendal Global Select Fund

Pendal Global Select Fund is a global equities portfolio with a distinctive, yet proven approach.

Fund managers Chris Lees and Nudgem Richyal have worked closely together for more than 20 years.

They manage a portfolio of 30-60 stocks using quantitative analysis and fundamental research based on decades of experience.

The team draws on the expertise of 40-plus investment professionals at JOHCM and Regnan.

 

 


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