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Lessons from the latest GDP data | How to invest in troubled times | AI opportunities outside the Magnificent Seven
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On a tour of the US late last year, Pendal equities analyst Elise McKay met with dozens of companies – and found generative AI was a topic in almost every meeting.
“There’s strong evidence that over the longer-term generative AI will have a big impact across the business landscape,” McKay said at the time.
Six months later, investors are still entranced by the US “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks.
But several ASX-listed companies are making solid progress in leveraging the technology, points out Elise. These include cloud-based finance software maker Xero and data centre manager NextDC – both held by Pendal.
In her latest update, Elise outlines XRO’s “Just Ask Xero” AI assistant and NXT’s Nvidia-based “AI factory” which is expected to launch in coming months.
Elise also addresses one of the big issues that continues to face the AI industry – access to power.
The industry is working on solutions including better computing efficiency, improved cooling technologies and alternative power sources.
The December-quarter GDP numbers stopped just short of the “no-growth” scenario we were slowly sliding towards last year at 0.2%.
What were the takeaways for markets?
“First of all, rate hikes have worked,” says Pendal’s head of bonds Tim Hext.
“While the fixed-rate cliff has been more of a speed bump, the RBA will be pleased that higher rates are reducing demand.
“Lower immigration in the year ahead will also help. The supply side of the economy has largely normalised.
“This will give the RBA further comfort that the path back below 3% inflation is achievable.
“This opens the door to rate cuts later in the year. We think three cuts – September, November and December.
“By then the US Fed should be well into rate cuts. Inflation – while sticky around 3 per cent – would be considered under control.
“GDP would be allowed to push back up towards 2% or above without threatening the inflation outlook.
“This would be a good outcome for all and meet the objectives of the RBA.”
What are the main factors impacting income strategies right now?
Pendal’s head of income strategies Amy Xie Patrick has just published a deep dive on how her view has evolved in recent months.
Among Amy’s main observations:
It can be hard to focus on the health of our investments knowing that many people are struggling for survival in war zones around the world.
Yet amid global geopolitical uncertainty, our responsibility to our family’s future remains.
In his latest article, Pendal’s head of multi asset Michael Blayney offers some tips for managing investments in times of global turmoil.
A few key points:
Asia does not have an equivalent to the US ‘Magnificent Seven’ tech stocks group.
But a select group of Taiwanese hardware manufacturers can stake claims as the unsung heroes of an AI-driven shift, argues J O Hambro PM Samir Mehta.
Semiconductor maker TSMC is one well known example. In his latest article Samir outlines another under-the-radar example – Taiwan’s Jentech Precision Industrial.
There is still a great deal of technical development needed in the manufacture of AI chips and servers, Samir says.
Samir describes Jentech Precision Industrial – which he holds in Pendal Asian Share Fund – as “a shovel-maker in Nvidia’s goldmine”.
To reduce the risk of relying on Nvidia’s AI chips, Samir believes other Magnificent Seven stocks could be potential customers for Taiwanese companies like Jentech.
“Many of these Taiwanese firms are the go-to partners of choice with very few alternatives when it comes to leading-edge technologies.”
July 26, 2023
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Why a hard landing looks unlikely | Latest outlook for inflation | Three mid-cap themes to consider | Opportunities in industrials
Despite some negative surprises among industrial stocks this ASX earnings season, the sector still offers opportunities for stock pickers.
“Several industrials companies have demonstrated weakness for the December six months, and it’s been a surprise,” says Pendal equities analyst Anthony Moran.
Some industrials showing cyclical weakness are priced attractively, he says. But investors need to scrutinise margins.
“You want to look for a company that has the ability to grow above its end market market rate, so that it has the potential to accelerate its share, even in a declining market.
“The next 12 to 24 months is going to be the great normalisation of the post-Covid super-cycle in margins, at least for the industrials sector,” Anthony argues.
How to conquer the interest rate peak | Goldilocks beware on inflation data | What to watch in a turning-point year | What’s driving the market this week
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Get regular insights on investing, market analysis and portfolio management from the experts at Perpetual Group.