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The Point
Quick, actionable insights for investors
May 29
The headlines driving Aussie equities | Falling USD should lift EMs | Where to find opportunities in theme-driven markets
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Elise McKay: The headlines driving Aussie equities this week
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Elise McKay: The headlines driving Aussie equities this week
Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week, according to Aussie equities analyst and portfolio manager ELISE MCKAY and reported by head investment specialist CHRIS ADAMS
Read Pendal’s latest weekly equities overview.
Crispin Murray: Where to find ASX opportunities amid ‘theme-driven’ market noise
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Crispin Murray: Where to find ASX opportunities amid ‘theme-driven’ market noise
Share prices are increasingly moved by popular themes like AI disruption, trade wars, and tariff fears – without regard to company fundamentals or long-term valuations.
As a result, quality Australian companies with sound outlooks and predictable cash flows are being indiscriminately sold off.
That’s creating opportunities for active fund managers, Pendal’s head of equities Crispin Murray told Morningstar’s 2025 investment conference in Sydney last week.
“We believe this is creating more distortions in the market. It means the amplitude of mispricing is greater, and it lasts longer.”
Global market dislocation means the ASX has a range of industrial companies with predictable cash flows and returns that have been sold down and offer opportunities for investors, he says.
“One example is CSL – one of Australia’s largest, most successful companies. Five years ago it was running high – at an over-40 multiple. It’s now down to about 22 times earnings,” he says.
Fears of the impact of tariffs on CSL are misplaced, assuming the company doesn’t do anything to respond – “and I think that’s where the market’s overreacting,” argues Crispin.
“We think the risk on the tariff front is being overstated, and that’s what’s providing you the opportunity.” Pendal owns CSL.
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‘Emerging markets crisis’? That’s a wildly overstated view, say our experts
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‘Emerging markets crisis’? That’s a wildly overstated view, say our experts
Some analysts have described a pattern of a weaker dollar and rising bond yields in the US as a ‘classic emerging markets crisis’.
“As veterans of actual emerging crises dating back to 1994, we consider that view to be wildly overstated,” writes Pendal’s EM team in their latest analysis.
In spite of volatility and weakness in core US financial markets, the currencies of almost all emerging markets strengthened against the US dollar in March and April. Meanwhile bond yields fell for the majority of major EMs.
“Emerging markets are driven by two major global drivers: international capital flows and international trade.
“A weaker dollar represents capital flowing out of the US and into the rest of the world – and a weaker dollar has consistently been positive for emerging markets over the past 30 years.
“Although evolving tariff policies threaten a downturn in global trade, the message from financial markets is that investor uncertainty about US economic policies is a clear positive for emerging economies and for investors in emerging markets.”
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Amy Xie Patrick: China, the US, and the value of uncertainty
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Amy Xie Patrick: China, the US, and the value of uncertainty
This month’s divergence in US and China rates policies wasn’t just a curiosity for money managers, observes Pendal’s head of income strategies, Amy Xie Patrick.
“It’s a study in contrasts, a reflection of deeper structural differences, and a reminder that policy effectiveness doesn’t always come wrapped in transparency or even democracy,” says Amy in her latest markets analysis.
On May 7, the US Fed left rates unchanged despite growing political pressure. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China delivered another dose of stimulus.
“One central bank faced market criticism over its non-committal guidance,” notes Amy. “The other moved swiftly and silently, without needing to justify its decision.
“Perhaps the most contrarian yet valuable takeaway is that less policy guidance may be a good thing.
“By avoiding the hard task of forecasting far into the future, we free ourselves from unhelpful narratives may that turn out to be false.
“By focusing on getting it right rather than always being right, we’re able to preserve the flexibility to change course when the fundamentals change.”
Read Amy’s full article here
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Mar 6
Takeaways from national accounts | A decisive, active approach to fixed income | Savage response to earnings misses | Investing in founder-led companies
Tim Hext: Three key takeaways from Australia’s latest national accounts data
Australia’s latest national accounts show GDP growth at 0.6% for the December quarter, suggesting economic conditions may be moving closer to “normal”.
But we may be “running to stand still” unless productivity starts improving, warns Pendal’s head of government bonds Tim Hext.
Tim has three takeaways from the latest data:
- The consumer is finally emerging, albeit tentatively, as a positive impact on the economy. Household consumption grew by 0.4%, contributing 0.2% to the 0.6% overall GDP growth. The contribution had been near zero over the previous year.
- Governments are still a big driver of GDP, even though their consumption and investment are falling. “Government needs to keep moderating spending and investment if the re-emerging consumer is to avoid causing inflationary pressures,” says Tim.
- Productivity continues to flat-line. GDP per hour worked fell again and was 1.2% lower over the year. “Unless we can start improving productivity, we will be running to stand still.”
Jim Taylor: What’s driving the ASX this week
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Jim Taylor: What’s driving the ASX this week
There were plenty of hits and misses in the ASX’s half-year reports – and high levels of volatility around results drove some big moves in the market.
By last week some 40 per cent of stocks had moved more than 5 per cent either way after reporting – a level not seen since 2019 and well ahead of the 25 per cent or so average going back to 2007.
Pendal PM Jim Taylor noted a new high for the ratio of a stock’s earnings-day move versus its 30-day average daily move.
“This hit 5x, versus an average of 3x in reporting seasons back to 2007,” he said.
“The savage reaction to earnings misses is driving corporate Australia to be much more proactive in cost-cutting to support earnings.
“They are also more constructive on share buy-backs as a mechanism to support the stock in increasingly volatile times.”
Consensus ASX200 profit expectations for FY25 and FY26 fell slightly, due mainly to lower-than-expected earnings factored into some larger-cap names in energy, banking, health care and tech.
Feb 20
Labour data key for RBA | ASX gold stocks shine | India facing down-cycle risk | Webinar, on demand
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