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The Point
Quick, actionable insights for investors
May 29
The headlines driving Aussie equities | Falling USD should lift EMs | Where to find opportunities in theme-driven markets
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Elise McKay: The headlines driving Aussie equities this week
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Elise McKay: The headlines driving Aussie equities this week
Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week, according to Aussie equities analyst and portfolio manager ELISE MCKAY and reported by head investment specialist CHRIS ADAMS
Read Pendal’s latest weekly equities overview.
Crispin Murray: Where to find ASX opportunities amid ‘theme-driven’ market noise
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Crispin Murray: Where to find ASX opportunities amid ‘theme-driven’ market noise
Share prices are increasingly moved by popular themes like AI disruption, trade wars, and tariff fears – without regard to company fundamentals or long-term valuations.
As a result, quality Australian companies with sound outlooks and predictable cash flows are being indiscriminately sold off.
That’s creating opportunities for active fund managers, Pendal’s head of equities Crispin Murray told Morningstar’s 2025 investment conference in Sydney last week.
“We believe this is creating more distortions in the market. It means the amplitude of mispricing is greater, and it lasts longer.”
Global market dislocation means the ASX has a range of industrial companies with predictable cash flows and returns that have been sold down and offer opportunities for investors, he says.
“One example is CSL – one of Australia’s largest, most successful companies. Five years ago it was running high – at an over-40 multiple. It’s now down to about 22 times earnings,” he says.
Fears of the impact of tariffs on CSL are misplaced, assuming the company doesn’t do anything to respond – “and I think that’s where the market’s overreacting,” argues Crispin.
“We think the risk on the tariff front is being overstated, and that’s what’s providing you the opportunity.” Pendal owns CSL.
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‘Emerging markets crisis’? That’s a wildly overstated view, say our experts
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‘Emerging markets crisis’? That’s a wildly overstated view, say our experts
Some analysts have described a pattern of a weaker dollar and rising bond yields in the US as a ‘classic emerging markets crisis’.
“As veterans of actual emerging crises dating back to 1994, we consider that view to be wildly overstated,” writes Pendal’s EM team in their latest analysis.
In spite of volatility and weakness in core US financial markets, the currencies of almost all emerging markets strengthened against the US dollar in March and April. Meanwhile bond yields fell for the majority of major EMs.
“Emerging markets are driven by two major global drivers: international capital flows and international trade.
“A weaker dollar represents capital flowing out of the US and into the rest of the world – and a weaker dollar has consistently been positive for emerging markets over the past 30 years.
“Although evolving tariff policies threaten a downturn in global trade, the message from financial markets is that investor uncertainty about US economic policies is a clear positive for emerging economies and for investors in emerging markets.”
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Amy Xie Patrick: China, the US, and the value of uncertainty
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Amy Xie Patrick: China, the US, and the value of uncertainty
This month’s divergence in US and China rates policies wasn’t just a curiosity for money managers, observes Pendal’s head of income strategies, Amy Xie Patrick.
“It’s a study in contrasts, a reflection of deeper structural differences, and a reminder that policy effectiveness doesn’t always come wrapped in transparency or even democracy,” says Amy in her latest markets analysis.
On May 7, the US Fed left rates unchanged despite growing political pressure. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China delivered another dose of stimulus.
“One central bank faced market criticism over its non-committal guidance,” notes Amy. “The other moved swiftly and silently, without needing to justify its decision.
“Perhaps the most contrarian yet valuable takeaway is that less policy guidance may be a good thing.
“By avoiding the hard task of forecasting far into the future, we free ourselves from unhelpful narratives may that turn out to be false.
“By focusing on getting it right rather than always being right, we’re able to preserve the flexibility to change course when the fundamentals change.”
Read Amy’s full article here
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These podcasts are for general information purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. They have been prepared without taking into account any recipient’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on the information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their or their clients’ individual objectives, financial situation and needs. The information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation.
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How the biggest election year in global history will affect emerging markets investors
The US election will take the spotlight in November, but emerging markets investors will need to keep tabs on dozens of other national polls this year.
“2024 has the highest concentration of elections, possibly in modern history,” says Paul Wimborne, a senior find manager in Pendal’s emerging markets team.
“There has already been presidential elections in Taiwan and later this year there will be elections in India, Indonesia, South Africa and Mexico.”
Those countries represent 40 per cent of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index by weight and 1.9 billion people.
Investors will need to consider the ramifications of elections with the potential to affect the global macro environment that matters so much to emerging equity markets.
These include Russia in March and the US in November.
While Israel is not schedule for an election, the emergency government formed after the Hamas attacks may not last throughout 2024.
Crispin Murray: What’s driving ASX stocks this week
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Crispin Murray: What’s driving ASX stocks this week
Most people would be aware from last week’s per-capita recession headlines that Australia’s population growth is outstripping economic growth.
But population growth – especially immigration and temporary visas – is also supporting corporate earnings, says Pendal’s head of equities Crispin Murray.
“All up, we’re probably looking at about a 3 per cent rise in the population today versus a year ago.
“People are coming to Australia with money in their pockets, setting themselves up and getting accommodation – which is driving up rents.
“Part of the reason we’re seeing resilience in the top line of companies is because they’re basically driven by nominal GDP, not per capita GDP.”
Population growth is also offsetting the effects of the ‘mortgage cliff’ which forces households into higher, variable mortgage payments as low-rate fixed loans expire, Crispin says.
“With each company we met over reporting season, we talked about the issues facing them and if they were seeing consequences from this mortgage cliff. So far, the consequences are very limited.”
Pendal’s Crispin Murray reviews the lessons from 2023 and outlook for 2024
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Pendal’s Crispin Murray reviews the lessons from 2023 and outlook for 2024
Most people would be aware from last week’s per-capita recession headlines that Australia’s population growth is outstripping economic growth.
But population growth – especially immigration and temporary visas – is also supporting corporate earnings, says Pendal’s head of equities Crispin Murray.
“All up, we’re probably looking at about a 3 per cent rise in the population today versus a year ago.
“People are coming to Australia with money in their pockets, setting themselves up and getting accommodation – which is driving up rents.
“Part of the reason we’re seeing resilience in the top line of companies is because they’re basically driven by nominal GDP, not per capita GDP.”
Population growth is also offsetting the effects of the ‘mortgage cliff’ which forces households into higher, variable mortgage payments as low-rate fixed loans expire, Crispin says.
“With each company we met over reporting season, we talked about the issues facing them and if they were seeing consequences from this mortgage cliff. So far, the consequences are very limited.”
Dec 13
Positioning for a hard landing | 2024 outlook for bonds, credit, cash | Caution on home bias | Opportunities among M&A deals
Aussie equities: Why it’s smart to take the long-term view on M&A deals
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Aussie equities: Why it’s smart to take the long-term view on M&A deals
Newspaper headlines have been full of merger and acquisition activity and associated capital raisings in recent months.
Chemist Warehouse-Sigma Healthcare. Brookfield-Origin. Newcrest-Newmont. Allkem-Livent. Woodside-Santos.
The activity is likely to continue in 2024, especially in the resources space.
Investors haven’t always been impressed with recent deals – but that doesn’t mean there isn’t opportunity, says Anthony Moran, an analyst with Pendal’s Aussie equities team.
“Markets tend to overreact, especially around M&A. That’s exacerbated at the moment with fears that the economic cycle is rolling over.
“Investors are concerned that companies are buying businesses that may have puffed up earnings or been trading on a cyclical peak.
“But if you can do the work on the acquired businesses and start to get an understanding and more informed perspective on the probability of the success of a deal, then a sell-off can be quite an attractive investment opportunity.”
Fixed income: Pendal’s 2024 outlook for bonds, credit and cash
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Fixed income: Pendal’s 2024 outlook for bonds, credit and cash
What lessons can fixed income investors take from 2023 into 2024?
Pendal’s head of income strategies Amy Xie Patrick sat down with fellow PMs George Bishay, Steve Campbell and Tim Hext to review the year.
We encourage you to read the full article, which covers the outlook for bonds, credit and cash. Some quotes:
Tim: “My framework for 2024 is for falling inflation and yields. Though I’ll be flexible since it likely won’t be a straight line down.”
George: “You can’t ignore the tail risks out there. I’ve kept to top-quality issuers, stayed in senior positions in capital structures and always had an eye on liquidity when adding risk this year.”
Steve: “I expect the cash rate to remain unchanged over 2024, though with bouts of volatility.”
Amy has the odds of a US recession at two-thirds in 2H 2024. “Consider rotating back into fixed income and cash – and look for good active management,” she says.
Dec 7
Rates to stay on hold | The case for corporate bonds | An asset class you probably haven’t thought of | Aussie mid-caps with India exposure
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