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The Point
Quick, actionable insights for investors
May 29
The headlines driving Aussie equities | Falling USD should lift EMs | Where to find opportunities in theme-driven markets
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Elise McKay: The headlines driving Aussie equities this week
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Elise McKay: The headlines driving Aussie equities this week
Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week, according to Aussie equities analyst and portfolio manager ELISE MCKAY and reported by head investment specialist CHRIS ADAMS
Read Pendal’s latest weekly equities overview.
Crispin Murray: Where to find ASX opportunities amid ‘theme-driven’ market noise
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Crispin Murray: Where to find ASX opportunities amid ‘theme-driven’ market noise
Share prices are increasingly moved by popular themes like AI disruption, trade wars, and tariff fears – without regard to company fundamentals or long-term valuations.
As a result, quality Australian companies with sound outlooks and predictable cash flows are being indiscriminately sold off.
That’s creating opportunities for active fund managers, Pendal’s head of equities Crispin Murray told Morningstar’s 2025 investment conference in Sydney last week.
“We believe this is creating more distortions in the market. It means the amplitude of mispricing is greater, and it lasts longer.”
Global market dislocation means the ASX has a range of industrial companies with predictable cash flows and returns that have been sold down and offer opportunities for investors, he says.
“One example is CSL – one of Australia’s largest, most successful companies. Five years ago it was running high – at an over-40 multiple. It’s now down to about 22 times earnings,” he says.
Fears of the impact of tariffs on CSL are misplaced, assuming the company doesn’t do anything to respond – “and I think that’s where the market’s overreacting,” argues Crispin.
“We think the risk on the tariff front is being overstated, and that’s what’s providing you the opportunity.” Pendal owns CSL.
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‘Emerging markets crisis’? That’s a wildly overstated view, say our experts
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‘Emerging markets crisis’? That’s a wildly overstated view, say our experts
Some analysts have described a pattern of a weaker dollar and rising bond yields in the US as a ‘classic emerging markets crisis’.
“As veterans of actual emerging crises dating back to 1994, we consider that view to be wildly overstated,” writes Pendal’s EM team in their latest analysis.
In spite of volatility and weakness in core US financial markets, the currencies of almost all emerging markets strengthened against the US dollar in March and April. Meanwhile bond yields fell for the majority of major EMs.
“Emerging markets are driven by two major global drivers: international capital flows and international trade.
“A weaker dollar represents capital flowing out of the US and into the rest of the world – and a weaker dollar has consistently been positive for emerging markets over the past 30 years.
“Although evolving tariff policies threaten a downturn in global trade, the message from financial markets is that investor uncertainty about US economic policies is a clear positive for emerging economies and for investors in emerging markets.”
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Amy Xie Patrick: China, the US, and the value of uncertainty
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Amy Xie Patrick: China, the US, and the value of uncertainty
This month’s divergence in US and China rates policies wasn’t just a curiosity for money managers, observes Pendal’s head of income strategies, Amy Xie Patrick.
“It’s a study in contrasts, a reflection of deeper structural differences, and a reminder that policy effectiveness doesn’t always come wrapped in transparency or even democracy,” says Amy in her latest markets analysis.
On May 7, the US Fed left rates unchanged despite growing political pressure. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China delivered another dose of stimulus.
“One central bank faced market criticism over its non-committal guidance,” notes Amy. “The other moved swiftly and silently, without needing to justify its decision.
“Perhaps the most contrarian yet valuable takeaway is that less policy guidance may be a good thing.
“By avoiding the hard task of forecasting far into the future, we free ourselves from unhelpful narratives may that turn out to be false.
“By focusing on getting it right rather than always being right, we’re able to preserve the flexibility to change course when the fundamentals change.”
Read Amy’s full article here
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These podcasts are for general information purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. They have been prepared without taking into account any recipient’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on the information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their or their clients’ individual objectives, financial situation and needs. The information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation.
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Crispin Murray: What’s driving the market this week?
Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week, according to Pendal’s head of equities CRISPIN MURRAY. Reported by portfolio specialist Chris Adams
June 17
Canberra’s green bond explained | Quarterly fixed-income deep dive | Three charts that show the advantage of an active approach to fixed income
Income and fixed interest: Pendal’s quarterly deep dive into the themes driving Australian markets
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Income and fixed interest: Pendal’s quarterly deep dive into the themes driving Australian markets
Pendal’s income and fixed interest team has just published its quarterly deep dive into the themes driving Australian markets.
In the latest edition, head of government bond strategies Tim Hext explains how the RBA’s liquidity system affects investments – and why Australians need to honestly appraise the liquidity of their funds.
Head of income strategies Amy Xie Patrick explores which kind of income funds are best suited to the likely economic landing scenarios.
(Hint: not one-dimensional funds).
Senior credit analyst Terry Yuan writes about a recent transformation in the credit bond issuance market which has led to a number of deals becoming heavily over-subscribed.
An unprecedented shift from a buyer’s market to a seller’s market has led to significant changes in pricing dynamics, Terry says.
Lastly, senior ESG and impact analyst Murray Ackman has a quick guide to the key questions investors should ask about sustainable investing opportunities.
Murray Ackman: Why we bought Australia’s first Commonwealth green bond
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Murray Ackman: Why we bought Australia’s first Commonwealth green bond
Australia has joined other sovereign nations in issuing an inaugural Commonwealth green bond.
There are several reasons why Pendal invested in the bond. Here are a few, according to senior ESG and impact analyst Murray Ackman.
Firstly, we want the first Commonwealth green bond to support new projects. “This is known as additionality – that is, funding something that would not have been funded but for this green bond,” Murray explains.
Secondly, Pendal examined whether the bond funded revolutionary projects. “We would like to see more catalytic change, but for the very first Commonwealth Green Bond, we are pleased with the scope of projects.”
Pendal was also satisfied the bond included clear reporting on impact as well as performance.
“The government made the commitment to have independent verification of allocation and impact reporting.
“We are hopeful that this bond will demonstrate what the minimum requirements are for clear and transparent reporting for green bonds in Australia.”
Crispin Murray: What’s driving the market this week?
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Crispin Murray: What’s driving the market this week?
Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week, according to Pendal’s head of equities CRISPIN MURRAY. Reported by portfolio specialist Chris Adams
May 30
How Nvidia is impacting the global economy | Aussies relaxed about inflation outlook | Three charts that show the advantage of an active approach to fixed income
Tim Hext: Investors are still relaxed about the inflation outlook
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Tim Hext: Investors are still relaxed about the inflation outlook
Despite a narrative around re-emerging inflation, Australian investors are remarkably relaxed about the outlook for prices, observes Pendal’s head of government bond strategies, Tim Hext.
April’s inflation numbers – released yesterday – show a 3.6% increase in the annual Consumer Price Index. That’s slightly higher than March (3.5%) and more than the 3.4% markets were hoping for.
A rise in goods prices – mainly furniture, footwear and clothing – will not go unnoticed by the Reserve Bank and will require further investigation, says Tim.
But overall, the market is backing the RBA to do its job, he says. Implied 10-year inflation levels remain reasonably well anchored at 2.77%.
“Three-year yields in Australia moved back above 4 per cent after the data. We view this as a buying opportunity, since our medium-term view on inflation is positive.
“US inflation numbers come out on Friday and should show lower rental data feeding through to lower outcomes.
“Unless our concerns ramp up, we will be happy to be long duration into the winter months.”
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