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The headlines driving Aussie equities | Falling USD should lift EMs | Where to find opportunities in theme-driven markets
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Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week, according to Aussie equities analyst and portfolio manager ELISE MCKAY and reported by head investment specialist CHRIS ADAMS
Read Pendal’s latest weekly equities overview.
Share prices are increasingly moved by popular themes like AI disruption, trade wars, and tariff fears – without regard to company fundamentals or long-term valuations.
As a result, quality Australian companies with sound outlooks and predictable cash flows are being indiscriminately sold off.
That’s creating opportunities for active fund managers, Pendal’s head of equities Crispin Murray told Morningstar’s 2025 investment conference in Sydney last week.
“We believe this is creating more distortions in the market. It means the amplitude of mispricing is greater, and it lasts longer.”
Global market dislocation means the ASX has a range of industrial companies with predictable cash flows and returns that have been sold down and offer opportunities for investors, he says.
“One example is CSL – one of Australia’s largest, most successful companies. Five years ago it was running high – at an over-40 multiple. It’s now down to about 22 times earnings,” he says.
Fears of the impact of tariffs on CSL are misplaced, assuming the company doesn’t do anything to respond – “and I think that’s where the market’s overreacting,” argues Crispin.
“We think the risk on the tariff front is being overstated, and that’s what’s providing you the opportunity.” Pendal owns CSL.
Read more
Some analysts have described a pattern of a weaker dollar and rising bond yields in the US as a ‘classic emerging markets crisis’.
“As veterans of actual emerging crises dating back to 1994, we consider that view to be wildly overstated,” writes Pendal’s EM team in their latest analysis.
In spite of volatility and weakness in core US financial markets, the currencies of almost all emerging markets strengthened against the US dollar in March and April. Meanwhile bond yields fell for the majority of major EMs.
“Emerging markets are driven by two major global drivers: international capital flows and international trade.
“A weaker dollar represents capital flowing out of the US and into the rest of the world – and a weaker dollar has consistently been positive for emerging markets over the past 30 years.
“Although evolving tariff policies threaten a downturn in global trade, the message from financial markets is that investor uncertainty about US economic policies is a clear positive for emerging economies and for investors in emerging markets.”
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This month’s divergence in US and China rates policies wasn’t just a curiosity for money managers, observes Pendal’s head of income strategies, Amy Xie Patrick.
“It’s a study in contrasts, a reflection of deeper structural differences, and a reminder that policy effectiveness doesn’t always come wrapped in transparency or even democracy,” says Amy in her latest markets analysis.
On May 7, the US Fed left rates unchanged despite growing political pressure. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China delivered another dose of stimulus.
“One central bank faced market criticism over its non-committal guidance,” notes Amy. “The other moved swiftly and silently, without needing to justify its decision.
“Perhaps the most contrarian yet valuable takeaway is that less policy guidance may be a good thing.
“By avoiding the hard task of forecasting far into the future, we free ourselves from unhelpful narratives may that turn out to be false.
“By focusing on getting it right rather than always being right, we’re able to preserve the flexibility to change course when the fundamentals change.”
Read Amy’s full article here
June 25, 2025
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The information in these podcasts may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information in this presentation is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither Pendal nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information.
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Many fixed-income investors will soon be looking for new opportunities as prudential regulator APRA starts to phase out bank hybrids from 2027.
Bank hybrids have been a popular cornerstone of income-generating portfolios. But did they truly live up to their promise – and is there a better strategy?
Pendal’s head of income strategies Amy Xi Patrick answers both questions in a new article.
Amy argues bank hybrids are ill-suited to serving a defensive role; not as easily bought and sold as investors might believe; and may not meet their “higher income potential”.
Investors can find better alternatives, she believes
“We start by mapping investment objectives to assets that have a proven track record of delivering against those objectives.
That means we don’t have to accept market narratives about hybrids (or any other asset types) that have not been entirely accurate.”
In this article, Amy describes a portfolio construction method she believes is better suited to producing a regular, stable and repeatable income stream and capital growth to help offset the effects of inflation.
Read the article
September and October are often monumental months in global markets and economics.
Think of the Asian economic crisis in late 1997 and the GFC in 2008.
This year’s start to Spring may not be quite as pivotal, but we’ve nevertheless seen unexpected and drastic changes in Brazil and China, our emerging markets team notes.
In a new article, the EM team outlines good numbers in Brazil’s manufacturing industry, retail sector and equity markets.
While inflation pressure has led to a local rate hike, expectations for lower US rate cuts has eased pressure on EM economies and their currencies.
“Together, these developments have further enhanced our enthusiasm for Brazilian equities,” the team says.
Meanwhile, the team remains confident in its overweight China position as policy changes start to move at a fast clip.
“We consider China’s low inflation, large trade and current account surpluses, earnings growth in parts of the equity market, and attractive equity valuations as reasons to maintain holdings in Chinese equities.”
Read more here
Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week, according to Pendal portfolio manager PETE DAVIDSON. Reported by investment specialist Chris Adams.
A green bond that could fund a national park | Market reaction to US election polls | Go for balance in uncertain times | Debunking a sustainable investing myth
Sustainable investors looking to fund nature repair often lack high-quality opportunities.
But a proposal to restore national parks in Victoria could be just the thing, says Regnan ESG and impact analyst Murray Ackman.
A proposed green bond offers the opportunity to unlock hundreds of millions in private capital to support the expansion of national parks in Victoria’s central highlands, including a “Great Forest National Park”.
The park is under consideration by the Victorian government as a possible use for public land previously allocated to timber harvesting in Gippsland and North-East Victoria.
No decision has yet been made. But advocates say the national park would attract 379,000 extra visitors and more than $40 million to the local economy every year.
A $224 million state government green bond is proposed to fund the forest’s restoration using private capital.
“From an investor perspective, everyone’s talking about nature repair and biodiversity but there are few investable opportunities,” says Murray.
“It’s exciting that world experts and academic leaders have come together to propose a viable, reliable way to invest in nature repair.”
Investor returns should be attractive, says Murray.
“We have noticed quality green, social and sustainability bonds have heightened demand in the secondary market and tend to outperform.”
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Get regular insights on investing, market analysis and portfolio management from the experts at Perpetual Group.