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AMY XIE PATRICK: China’s going lower on rates. Here’s what it means for investors

China is one of the few countries lowering interest rates. Pendal’s head of income strategies AMY XIE PATRICK explains why — and what it means for investors

You can also listen to this podcast on Apple or Spotify
An excerpt from this podcast

Amy Xie Patrick, Pendal’s head of income strategies:

The first thing to remember about these China authorities is they are not independent monetary authorities as we know them in Australia and the US.

The central bank in China has been lowering interest rates because the economy quite frankly is in a rut.

Most major investment bank analysts expect growth in China will fall to levels not seen over the last decade.

Quite frankly China will struggle to get above the 4% threshold for the next year or perhaps even more.

So the reason why China central bank is easing when the rest of the world is tightening, is because its economic situation looks a lot more dire.

China’s economic cycles over the last decade have largely been self-engineered.

It usually booms to a point where authorities get concerned about whatever is causing that boom.

And typically that’s always been property. China’s property market is quite unique — it is the one place in the world where its top-tier cities have vacancy ratios of around about 25%.

So just think about that.

About a quarter of the properties in big cities like Shanghai and Beijing sit vacant. They’re not even being rented out. There is a huge oversupply of properties.

Property is a store of wealth for the Chinese population as a whole.

But the amount of debt that gets accumulated behind the sector (mainly on the developer side) has gotten authorities worried that debt levels will become unsustainable if they continue to stimulate the economy out of trouble.


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About Amy Xie Patrick and Pendal’s Income and Fixed Interest team

Amy is Pendal’s Head of Income Strategies. She has extensive experience and expertise in emerging markets, global high yield and investment grade credit and holds an honours degree in economics from Cambridge University.

Pendal’s Income and Fixed Interest boutique is one of the most experienced and well-regarded fixed income teams in Australia. In 2021 the team won Lonsec’s Active Fixed Income Fund of the Year Award. In 2020 they won the Australian Fixed Interest category in the Zenith awards.

The team oversees A$22 billion invested across income, composite, pure alpha, global and Australian government strategies.

Find out more about Pendal’s fixed interest strategies here

About Pendal Group

Pendal is an independent, global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.

Contact a Pendal key account manager here


This information has been prepared by Pendal Fund Services Limited (PFSL) ABN 13 161 249 332, AFSL No 431426 and is current at August 30, 2022. PFSL is the responsible entity and issuer of units in the Pendal Monthly Income Plus Fund (ARSN: 137 707 996) and Pendal Dynamic Income Fund (ARSN: 622 750 734) (Funds). A product disclosure statement (PDS) is available for the Fund and can be obtained by calling 1300 346 821 or visiting www.pendalgroup.com. The Target Market Determination (TMD) for the Fund is available at www.pendalgroup.com/ddo. You should obtain and consider the PDS and the TMD before deciding whether to acquire, continue to hold or dispose of units in the Fund. An investment in the Fund or any of the funds referred to in this web page is subject to investment risk, including possible delays in repayment of withdrawal proceeds and loss of income and principal invested. This information is for general purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. It has been prepared without taking into account any recipient’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their individual objectives, financial situation and needs. This information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation. The information may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither PFSL nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information. Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any projections are predictive only and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. Whilst we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections. For more information, please call Customer Relations on 1300 346 821 8am to 6pm (Sydney time) or visit our website www.pendalgroup.com

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